What the Hell is going on With Superconductors
AI art by Midjourney
Every few decades Physics produces a fundamentally new 'thing' that changes what's physically possible.
Humanity might have just unlocked a new achievement…
A very nerdy corner of Twitter is ON FIRE right now. Because they think the whole world is about to change. A breakthrough is happening in real-time on Twitter in Room-Temperature Superconductors. It’s thrilling to consider this might be what it feels like when era-defining technologies are discovered in the age of Twitter. Like COVID, but… with good news. Imagine following Edison, Tesla, and Morgan on Twitter as electrification unfolded.
I’ll do my best here to explain what’s happening, why it matters, and what to do.
Caveat: Everything in here I’ve learned in the past week from strangers on the internet and Wikipedia.
Bad News: I have no technical or physics background.
Good News: I won’t use words you don’t understand.
What’s Happening RIGHT NOW
Researchers have spent their entire careers researching room-temperature Superconductors. It’s one of the Holy Grails of material science. About a week ago, two papers were published simultaneously claiming a breakthrough – actual Room-Temperature Superconducting Materials, created in a lab in Korea.
There seems to be big drama between the scientists. A nobel prize may be at stake. Or even scientific immortality. It’s not the main story and there are many unconfirmed details, I won’t go into it here, but @8teAPi is basically live-tweeting an HBO series so follow them for that angle.
We might be one week into a MASSIVE change in humanity, seeing the first ripples of a coming tidal wave.
Now, RIGHT now, there are thousands of scientists all over the world working frantically to reprocuce these results, confirm theory, run simulations, and improve methodologies. It is INCREDIBLE to see the scientific base of humanity from all over the world rise as one and tackle this opportunity. Feel like a scene from a Michael Bay movie, but nerdier.
Here is what they’re working on…
AI art by Midjourney
Superconductors put simply
Superconductors are materials with zero electrical resistance. Normally, when energy moves between sources (an outlet to a phone battery), or over distance (through wires and power lines) there is loss of energy. Some estimates of that loss between generation and end user are 66%!! With zero resistance transmission materials, there could be near-zero loss of energy. Cost of energy could fall by one-third JUST by improving transmission. That would be great – and just the beginning.
I’m sure this description would make a Physics PhD cringe, but hey it’s my first week.
The problem is so far all of our superconductors only work at insanely cold temperatures. Those are complex and expensive to maintain, so superconductors have only been used very rarely in special circumstances to date.
Superconductors that work at room temperature would be an enormous breakthrough, making them less finnicky and cheaper to operate. We could put superconducting materials many more places like power lines, wires, computers, transportation, etc.
Why is everyone SO DAMN EXCITED about the impact of room-temperature superconductors? So glad you asked…
Why It Matters
“If successful LK-99 would be a watershed moment for humanity easily on-par with invention of the transistor. Overnight, we revolutionize all of electronics and energy.”
Like the invention of computers or electricity, it’s very hard to see all that will happen, and in what order. But there is a lot of potential to be excited about:
Rebuilding Basics
Energy Generation (Wind, Solar, Geothermal)
Energy Transmission
Energy Storage (in some contexts)
MRI Machines get Better/Cheaper
Super-Efficient and fast Magnetic-Levitation Trains
Advanced Technologies Now More Potential
Nuclear Fusion gets cheaper, easier, more efficient.
Quantum Computers, and at Personal Desktop scale
Giant Railguns to shoot cargo into space very cheaply
Brain-Machine Interfaces (like Neuralink) much more plausible
Hoverboards
Second Order Effects
What happens when these superconductors continue to develop?
Historically, when a new type or format of superconductor is discovered, we find other new similar materials “nearby” and improve production. In fact our first discovery in an area is likely to be a “bad” one, relative to what comes next.
What happens when energy gets cheaper?
Carbon Capture now possible?
Material abundance via robotics?
Desalinization more cost-effective?
What happens when compute power takes another leap?
More leaps in Artificial Intelligence?
Of course, not everything on this list will happen, and certainly not immediately. Matt Loszak has a great thread about which applications are likely to come first (and those which may never come at all, for economic reasons)
There are qualified people who have seen hype cycles before, and offer thoughtful comments about breakthroughs in general.
What To Do Next
It seems still uncertain whether this is THE REAL REAL breakthrough, or exactly how much of one. Andrew Cote did a good job in this thread of breaking down the economic impact, given different levels of performance of the new material.
At this point, evidence SEEMS to be mounting that this is A REAL REAL breakthrough, though still new information developing.
Prediction markets have been increasing the odds for 2 days. Recently two different labs published papers showing that their massive computer simulations of the chemistry proposed in the breakthrough are possible – which has had a huge impact on everyone’s optimism that this is REAL REAL.
(Though, there are also good reasons to doubt simulations as being a perfect predictor of the physical world. We don’t have a perfect quantitative grasp of everything happening here…)
Still open questions around how easily/efficiently reproduction processes will go. There seems to be a lot of “luck” in the production process.
Good news is the materials (lead, copper) are relatively cheap and accessible, and the equipment required is not super specialized. People are doing their own replication attempts at home or at work, in addition to highly professional labs all around the world.
We’re excited. People are stoked on lots of different things. Trying to figure out how to trade on the news. Loving the Drama.
Right now, it seems most likely we’ll end up somewhere between “This is nothing” and “OMG EVERYTHING JUST CHANGED.” These ripples are likely to become waves, and we’re all going to make fun, profit, and friends along the way as we surf them.
Follow these people for more current news:
@MattParlmer - General news and thread-starting
@Andercot - Superconducting Magnet Engineer
@Iris_IGB - working on experiment methodology in her living room.
@8teAPi - Tweeting that drama real-time
@Altryne - Hosting spaces about RTSC
@AndrewMcCalip - Engineer at Varda, replicating the experiment